‘REAL’ ATP RANKINGS: Who is benefitting from new rules and who is missing out?

If there is one issue that appears to be causing divide in men’s tennis right now it is the ATP rankings and the temporary rules.

To deal with the challenges of the coronavirus pandemic, the ATP have brought in a temporary two year cycle to replace the traditional 52-weeks rolling system.

While it offers protection to players, it is also creating a somewhat warped view of where people are in terms of form, so with the help of YolitaTennis, we thought it was time to keep track of what tennis would, and arguably should, look like right now in normal circumstances.

‘Real’ ATP Rankings, based on rolling 52-week performance

1 Djokovic 5,830
2 Medvedev 5,495
3 Rublev 3,825
4 Thiem 3,535
5 Nadal 3,300
6 Zverev 3,115
7 Tsitsipas 2,795
8 Schwartzman 2,210
9 Raonic 1,505
10 Carreño Busta 1,500

Who is benefitting

Roger Federer is the biggest beneficiary by far. After over a year out of the game injured, Federer would have been pretty much wiped out in terms of points under the traditional system.

However, despite his absence not being anything connected with Covid, the Covid-protection applied to the rankings has seen him retain his top ten place.

Matteo Berrettini is also in the top ten pretty unnaturally right now. As good as he looked before injury at the Australian Open, he should be five positions lower in the rankings.

Meanwhile, both Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas are two places higher than their performances would merit in the old system.

Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and Dominic Thiem are right where they should be.

Who is missing out?

Right now, it’s tough to not echo the frustrations on Andrey Rublev, and it’s interesting to note he is is actually doing himself a disservice.

“If we would have the normal system, I would be like number four in the world I think,” Rublev said.

He’s wrong, he would be number three.

Alexander Zverev has also expressed frustration, describing the current system as ‘absurd,’ but realistically he would only be one spot higher in the old system.

Milos Raonic should also be back to being a top ten player and should be counting himself very unfortunate that he is not.

You could also argue that Djokovic has missed out due to the effects on covid on the ATP rankings given he would have considerably more weeks at world number one by now (334) if they had not been suspended last year.

Current top ten (‘real’ ATP rankings in brackets)

1 Djokovic (1)
2 Medvedev (2)
3 Nadal (5)
4 Thiem (4)
5 Tsitsipas (7)
6 Federer (300-400)
7 Zverev (6)
8 Rublev (3)
9 Schwartzman (8)
10 Berrettini (15)

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