Both Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas have the chance to end the year as world No. 1 and knock 19-year-old Carlos Alcaraz off the top spot, but it depends entirely on their performance at the Nitto ATP Finals in Turin which runs from 13 to 20 November.
Currently, Carlos Alcaraz is ranked No. 1 with 6820 points but will not be competing in the ATP Finals due to an injury he picked up at the Paris Masters earlier this month, leaving things wide open for a potential shift in the rankings.
Only 1000 points behind Alcaraz is Nadal with 5820, while Tsitsipas has 5350.
Nadal has ended the year as world No. 1 five times in his illustrious career already, but Tsitsipas is contesting for the top spot for the very first time, meaning there is much more than a title at stake for the Greek.
Players at the ATP Finals will earn 200 points for a round-robin win and 400 points for a semi-final win, while 500 points are up for grabs in the final for the winner of the tournament. This means, in total, there are 1500 points on offer.
In order to claim the No. 1 ranking, Tsitsipas must win the round-robin style tournament without losing a match, meaning he must win five matches in a row to secure the 1500 points on offer to an undefeated champion.
Nadal’s route to the top is slightly easier, however, with two possible scenarios leading to a sixth year-end win as No. 1.
Firstly, if the Spaniard wins the tournament he will clinch the top ranking, meaning he can lose one of his round-robin matches and still have a chance.
Secondly, as long as Tsitsipas does not win the tournament as an undefeated champion, Nadal could still become the world No. 1 if he loses in the final providing that he wins all of his round-robin matches.
If the Spainard succeeds in either of these scenarios, he will have the same amount of points as Alcaraz but will claim the No. 1 spot as he will have the most total points combined from Grand Slams, ATP Masters 1000 mandatory tournaments and the ATP Finals.
If none of the above scenarios play out, Carlos Alcaraz will remain in the top spot and end the year as world No. 1 for the first time.
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